Iran’s dilemma has increased after the assassination of Hezbollah chief in Lebanon.
Hezbollah, long funded by Iran, had established itself as a powerful faction in Lebanon. It is also ready to carry out any kind of mission at the behest of Iran.
Now that Hassan Nasrallah has been killed in the Israeli attack, two biggest dilemmas have arisen in front of Iran.
Firstly, how to take revenge from Israel and secondly, how to maintain its influence in the Islamic world and the Arab region after the death of the Hezbollah chief.
Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in the Israeli army’s Beirut attack, was a major force in Iran. After the October 7 incident, when Israel attacked the Gaza Strip to eliminate Hamas, from that time Hezbollah was attacking Israel at the instigation of Iran.
The result of small attacks today was that Hezbollah’s biggest leader was eliminated and its top leadership was also almost wiped out.
Following Nasrallah’s death, Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei vowed that Nasrallah’s death would not be in vain, while Vice President Reza Aref said that his death would bring destruction to Israel.
In a report by news agency AFP, Karim Sajjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment said that Nasrallah had played an important role in increasing Iran’s influence. He said that Hezbollah was like a gem for Iran, which was necessary to increase its influence in the Arab region and among Islamic countries.
According to Ali Waze of International Crisis Group, even after Nasrallah’s death, Iran would not want to get directly involved in this conflict, but this death has raised a serious dilemma in front of Iran.
Because Israel is constantly challenging Iran’s influence. Many such incidents have occurred continuously in the last few months, after which Iran’s dominance in the Islamic world has been dealt a severe blow.
economic crisis
Speaking to AFP, Mehdi Zakarian, a Tehran-based international relations professor, said the developments showed that Iran and its coalition were not able to deter Israel.
The death of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh just two months ago, which took place inside Iran, exposed Iran’s security system to the whole world.
Even then, Iran had vowed to take revenge against Israel, but even after two months, Iran could not take any major decision, whereas the death of Hezbollah chief after two months is a big blow for Iran.
According to Zakarian, it will not be easy for Tehran to deal with Israel and revive Hezbollah amid US sanctions and its growing economic challenges. He said that if the government wanted to get involved in rebuilding Lebanon or re-equipping Hezbollah, it would increase Iran’s economic crisis.
Analysts have said Iran has been moving cautiously since the Gaza conflict began and is trying to project power without provoking a US response.
Even during its first direct attack on Israel in April, Iran opted for a limited attack, which was stopped by Israeli defense or allied forces.
Iran said at the time that it had informed the US and given neighboring countries 72 hours’ warning before its “limited” attack on Israel.
Impact on arms supply
According to Zakarian, Iran cannot leave Hezbollah in this condition because in that case it will lose its other allies as well.
Therefore, he will need to take some concrete steps in this matter. Another major dilemma Iran may face is communications and arms transfers with Hezbollah, analysts say.
Israel’s military vowed to prevent arms supplies to Hezbollah through Iran, and said its warplanes were patrolling the skies above should Iran attempt to send any weapons material to Lebanon. If it is done then we will destroy it.
According to Waze, Iran wants to portray itself as a leader in the Islamic world. For this, it tries to help terrorist organizations as well as Islamic countries around the world.
Its biggest fight in this race is with Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Recent events have also questioned this dream of Iran. Iran also faces the challenge of protecting its supremacy.
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