Washington. Historian Alan Lichtman, famous for accurately predicting the results of the US presidential elections, has once again given his opinion regarding the 2024 presidential elections. According to him, this time Kamala Harris will emerge as the winner in the elections, even though Donald Trump’s popularity remains strong. Lichtman said his prediction is based on a system called The Keys to the White House, which he developed with mathematician Vladimir Kelis-Borok in 1981. This method analyzes 13 key factors, including the party’s position in Congress, the strength of the economy, scams, social instability and the charisma of the candidate.
Eight major factors in favor of Harris in the political scenario
In the current political scenario, eight major factors are in Harris’s favor, which strongly establishes her chances of victory. This system has proven correct in the results of nine out of ten elections since 1984, making it considered a reliable source. Despite this, this time Lichtman has faced unprecedented criticism for his analysis. He revealed that he has been receiving obscene and threatening messages, in which his family has also been targeted. Lichtman said he has faced more hostility this election cycle than ever before, which is a far cry from past elections.
This factor is not enough to bring Trump back to power
However, Lichtman believes that foreign policy developments, particularly the Biden administration’s role in the Gaza conflict, could influence the electoral landscape. He says that if there is a major change in US policy on this issue, then this factor can affect the results. However, he added that given the current situation, this factor would not be enough to bring Trump back to power.
There will be a historic change in American politics
If Kamala Harris wins the election as per this prediction, she will become the first woman and first black President of America, which will be a historic change in American politics. This analysis of Lichtman has become a topic of discussion in political circles. Now it remains to be seen what will be the outcome of his historic prediction and whether the 2024 elections will write a new history.