After the Israeli attacks, now the eyes of the whole world are on Iran.
How the situation will be in the coming days amidst the ongoing tension in the Middle East will depend on how Iran responds to this Israeli attack.
Under normal circumstances, Israel would see this as a public challenge and is likely to respond strongly.
However, according to experts, Iran may avoid taking direct retaliatory action because doing so may expose its weaknesses and may have to directly confront Israel, which is in a one-and-done mood.
On the one hand, Iran may possibly launch ballistic missile attacks on Israel once again. Iran has directly attacked Israel twice already this year.
Retaliating militarily will give Iran an opportunity to show strength not only in front of its own people but also in front of Hamas and Hezbollah, which are fighting a war with Israel on different fronts. However, it is too early to say whether Iran will follow this path.
On this matter, the director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, a London-based think tank, has said that Iran is currently surrounded by many uncertainties due to military and economic sanctions, the US elections and its impact on US policy in the region.
Even amid tensions in the Middle East, Iran’s reformist President Massoud Pejeshkian is signaling that his country wants a new nuclear deal with the United States to ease international sanctions.
From the cautious statement given by the Iranian military on Saturday night, it seems that Iran is trying to withdraw from this fight.
The military has suggested that a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon is more important than any retaliation against Israel.
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also appeared restrained in his first comments on the attack on Sunday.
He said the attack should neither be exaggerated nor underestimated. Khamenei has avoided any immediate military response.
According to the Israeli military, Saturday’s attacks targeted the Iranian Air Force. Analysts say that this attack has exposed Iran’s weaknesses and Israel can carry out more such attacks.
University of Ottawa professor Thomas Juneau wrote on Twitter that Iranian media initially downplayed the attacks as indicating that Tehran wanted to avoid escalating to war.
“If Iran retaliates, it could lead to war, and if Iran does not retaliate, it signals Tehran’s weakness,” he wrote.
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